Bushes and bullets : illegal cocaine markets and violence in Colombia = Arbustos y balas : mercados ilegales de cocaína y violencia en Colombia / Daniel Mejía y Pascual Restrepo.
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TextLanguage: English Series: Documentos CEDE ; 53 Noviembre 2013Publisher: Bogotá : Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE, 2013Description: 54 páginas : ilustraciones ; 28 cmContent type: texto Media type: sin mediación Carrier type: volumenISBN: 16575334ISSN: 1657-5334Other title: Arbustos y balas : mercados ilegales de cocaína y violencia en ColombiaSubject(s): Industria de la cocaína -- Aspectos socioeconómicos -- Colombia | Mercados ilegales -- Colombia | Narcotráfico -- Aspectos socioeconómicos -- Colombia | Violencia -- Aspectos socioeconómicos -- ColombiaDDC classification: 363.45 Online resources: Consulta en línea Abstract: This paper proposes a new identification strategy to estimate the causal impact of illicit drug markets on violence using a panel of Colombian municipalities covering the period 1994\2008. Using a UNODC survey of Colombian rural households involved in coca cultivation, we estimate the determinants of land suitability for coca cultivation. With these results we create a suitability index that depends on the altitude, erosion, soil aptitude, and precipitation of a municipality. Our exogenous suitability index predicts the presence of coca crops cross sectionally and its expansion between 1994\2000. We show that following an increase in the demand for Colombian cocaine, coca cultivation increases disproportionately in municipalities with a high suitability index. This provides an exogenous source of variation in the extent of coca cultivation within municipalities that we use as an instrument to uncover the causal effect of illegal cocaine markets on violence. We find that a 10% increase in the value of coca cultivation in a municipality increases homicides by about 1.25%, forced displacement by about 3%, attacks by insurgent groups by about 2%, and incidents involving the explosion of land mines by about 1%. Our evidence is consistent with the view suggesting that prohibition creates rents for suppliers in illegal markets, and these rents cause violence as different armed groups fight each other, the government and the civil population for their control and extraction.Abstract: Este artículo propone una nueva estrategia de investigación para estimar el efecto causal de los mercados ilegales de drogas en la violencia. Para esto, utilizamos un panel de datos a nivel municipal en Colombia que cubre el período 1994-2008. Para estimar los determinantes de la aptitud del suelo para el cultivo de hoja de coca, utilizamos los resultados de una encuesta a cultivadores de UNODC. Con estos resultados, construimos un índice de aptitud del suelo para el cultivo de hoja de coca que depende de la altitud, la erosión, la calidad del suelo y la precipitación promedio. Nuestro índice exógeno de aptitud del suelo predice la presencia de cultivos de coca en el corte transversal, así como su expansión durante el período 1994-2008.
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Incluye referencias bibliográficas.
This paper proposes a new identification strategy to estimate the causal impact of illicit drug markets on violence using a panel of Colombian municipalities covering the period 1994\2008. Using a UNODC survey of Colombian rural households involved in coca cultivation, we estimate the determinants of land suitability for coca cultivation. With these results we create a suitability index that depends on the altitude, erosion, soil aptitude, and precipitation of a municipality. Our exogenous suitability index predicts the presence of coca crops cross sectionally and its expansion between 1994\2000. We show that following an increase in the demand for Colombian cocaine, coca cultivation increases disproportionately in municipalities with a high suitability index. This provides an exogenous source of variation in the extent of coca cultivation within municipalities that we use as an instrument to uncover the causal effect of illegal cocaine markets on violence. We find that a 10% increase in the value of coca cultivation in a municipality increases homicides by about 1.25%, forced displacement by about 3%, attacks by insurgent groups by about 2%, and incidents involving the explosion of land mines by about 1%. Our evidence is consistent with the view suggesting that prohibition creates rents for suppliers in illegal markets, and these rents cause violence as different armed groups fight each other, the government and the civil population for their control and extraction.
Este artículo propone una nueva estrategia de investigación para estimar el efecto causal de los mercados ilegales de drogas en la violencia. Para esto, utilizamos un panel de datos a nivel municipal en Colombia que cubre el período 1994-2008. Para estimar los determinantes de la aptitud del suelo para el cultivo de hoja de coca, utilizamos los resultados de una encuesta a cultivadores de UNODC. Con estos resultados, construimos un índice de aptitud del suelo para el cultivo de hoja de coca que depende de la altitud, la erosión, la calidad del suelo y la precipitación promedio. Nuestro índice exógeno de aptitud del suelo predice la presencia de cultivos de coca en el corte transversal, así como su expansión durante el período 1994-2008.
Resumen en Inglés y Español.
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